Will AI replace all humans?

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will AI replace all humans? The debate over whether computers and robots will replace all humans is not new; it dates back hundreds of years to the debates between Thomas Malthus and Karl Marx. Malthus was the early progenitor of the idea that the technological capacity to produce more goods than can be consumed leads to a tendency toward famine and starvation. Marx, the economist, adapted Malthus’ idea to the conditions of the industrial revolution and its shift from a static to a rapidly expanding population. These are not the predictions of future historians, but those of the politicians who, during the 1950s and ’60s, became convinced that automation was poised to destroy entire classes of industrial workers. Automation, which was originally an industry term, was becoming a household term as the long-prophesied decline of the American family hit its devastating low in the early 1970s. By the end of the ’70s, for example, during the early days of automated checkout at most U.S. supermarkets, members of what was considered a lowly profession — those who worked behind the counters and in the check-out lines — were being replaced by computers that had advanced beyond the basic $300 model to vastly higher-priced machines that did everything a cashier could do for as little as $2 an hour. The ideas of Malthus and Marx were not completely wrong. We now live in a global village of 1.5 billion people with a population set to continue to rise for years to come. In the developed world, wages have stagnated or declined for decades while productivity has skyrocketed, which means that wealth has grown for those who have wealth and not for the average worker. Meanwhile, the entry of vast numbers of poor, illiterate people to the global village has not been a problem. The difference is that Marx and Malthus were socialists who could foresee how events would play out and advocate that the solution to this tragedy was socialism, i.e., central planning and more government regulation to eliminate competition. The economics that Keynesians built on Marx’s ideas was also discredited by the collapse of Soviet socialism. The economics of supply and demand proved to be correct. In the 21st century, the case is much less clear. There has been a loss of manufacturing jobs as companies move work to low-wage countries, but there has been little gain in service jobs as computers and robots have enabled technology to reduce the need for human labor. The middle class, the target of the politicians, has fallen. There is a discussion going on about whether we can expect the continuing growth in the prosperity of those on the top and bottom of the income distribution to make up for the loss in middle-income workers. But clearly automation, which is mainly driven by the development of artificial intelligence (AI), will play a role in the decline. AI, or in AI parlance, “machine learning,” is the science of systems that learn and interact with humans. The most famous example is a child who learns its lessons from watching the mistakes of others. But there are many examples of AI in technology. It is now possible to have an AI-powered business analytics software that can generate analyses of how your business is doing. It can be customized to anticipate your future decisions in sales, marketing and production to maximize your profits. The software can predict what customers will buy and when they will order in the future. If the software predicts more sales than expected, it can increase production for the next order. AI, once mainly used in financial services, has become mainstream. All three major U.S. auto makers — Ford, Honda and GM — have developed their own AI-powered self-driving cars. Car companies are only beginning to figure out how to best apply AI to make a car safer and, thus, gain greater consumer acceptance. There are many other AI-powered technologies that will be used to create better products, replace bad products, and improve production in every field from health care to security to music. A recent McKinsey report predicts that AI will have a huge impact on every industry. By 2020, AI-powered predictive maintenance systems will help create real value by monitoring components and diagnosing problems before they occur. AI will also play a critical role in improving education. In 2009, L.D. Bell, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College, published “The Coming Technological Revolution.” He predicted that there would be a rapid acceleration of technological change that would eliminate 1.5 million jobs for each worker. But he said that a revolution in education could make possible the training of the necessary workers for a job in the future. Bell concluded that the reduction in the labor cost for some classes of workers could come at the cost of a “marginal change” in the employment structure, which he defined as the percent of workers in a profession or occupation that will need to be displaced by new technology. His estimate for a 1.5 million worker loss in the United States was that 6.5 million to 9 million jobs would be displaced by new technologies. In the middle years of the 21st century, the education of children and adults will be entirely different. Education will be part of an AI-powered world. There will be machines that teach math and science to the point where they can learn on their own. More fundamental science will be taught in the form of programs that run on any device. There will be a broadening of the definition of education, with more emphasis on interpersonal relationships and emotional intelligence. A big part of education will be a study of history, geology and science of the world that is changing. The politicians and pundits who were among the early champions of automating workers will be proven wrong. But will it be too late for those who predicted the coming disaster? Perhaps. Already we are seeing increasing signs of unemployment, such as the announcement of a small manufacturing company in London that had to shut down in January because its workers were unable to find work. Also last year, the unemployment rate of 8.1 percent for December was at the lowest rate since December 2008, the month the recession began. Yet the unemployment rate is expected to rise in the next two years. While it is true that American businesses are flush with cash, they are also buying back stock and stockpiling large sums for future growth. What is needed is the new, wave of small and medium-sized businesses that will bring back growth and innovation to the U.S. economy. Our education system is outdated. The inability to compete with overseas schools has meant that teachers are not trained to the point where they are able to teach the new technology. Even though we already know the answers to most questions, it does not always make sense to let teachers or students solve the problem in their own way. If our education system were more modern and included the necessary computer science skills for the new economy, we would not be talking about a country that cannot compete in the high-tech world. Although the robots are coming, let’s not be defeatist. If enough people are optimistic, the new American reality will be one of opportunity and new jobs for every worker. Jared Cohen is deputy director of Google’s “X” division. You can follow him on Twitter at @jaredcohen. Related stories: Stocks Alphabet’s upbeat earnings were strong, shares rose. Netflix Watch the marketlive. Marketwatch’s trader floor is always streaming. Tech As bad news about tech accelerates, Apple turns on a red light. Economy America’s inequality is coming back to haunt the U.S. For more from Opinion: Subscribe to the Opinion Journal, Fortune’s daily business-opinion newsletter.

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